I pondered the Reds runline here because rookie Hunter Greene can be dominant at times, but I'd have to say it's more likely that the Mets tear him up as he has a 5.87 home ERA. Cincinnati is still without regulars Tyler Stephenson (catcher) and Kyle Farmer (shortstop). The Mets are pretty much starting their regulars on the holiday, and Taijuan Walker has had four straight quality starts. Walker has allowed just three home runs in 72.2 innings this season. His 0.33 ERA at Great American Ball Park is the lowest among all pitchers with at least 25.0 innings pitched at the venue. The Reds are 1-8 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.

My model says the Reds cover the spread in 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Cincinnati halted its four-game losing streak with a 4-3 walk-off triumph against Atlanta on Sunday. New York has won by two or more runs just once in its last six contests. Mets RHP Taijuan Walker has a higher ERA on the road (3.30) than at home (1.86) this year and was tagged for five runs over five innings in his only career start versus the Reds. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs at -120.