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Mon 07/04 | 10:40 PM UTC | Cincinnati
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
N.Y. Mets 76-43, +1267 ML
NYM -1.5-115
NYM -178
Over 10-105
Cincinnati Reds 46-70, -1089 ML
CIN +1.5-105
CIN +150
Under 10-115

Expert Picks

MLB | N.Y. Mets 7 @ Cincinnati 4 | 07/04 | 10:40 PM UTC

N.Y. Mets -170

WIN

ANALYSIS: I pondered the Reds runline here because rookie Hunter Greene can be dominant at times, but I'd have to say it's more likely that the Mets tear him up as he has a 5.87 home ERA. Cincinnati is still without regulars Tyler Stephenson (catcher) and Kyle Farmer (shortstop). The Mets are pretty much starting their regulars on the holiday, and Taijuan Walker has had four straight quality starts. Walker has allowed just three home runs in 72.2 innings this season. His 0.33 ERA at Great American Ball Park is the lowest among all pitchers with at least 25.0 innings pitched at the venue. The Reds are 1-8 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3203 289-177-1 IN LAST 467 MLB PICKS
+319 16-9 IN LAST 25 CIN ML PICKS
+1607 37-15 IN LAST 52 NYM ML PICKS

Season Splits

76-43, +1267 ML
46-70, -1089 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
62%
49-30, +828
27-51, -1721
34%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
23-17, +386
13-25, -1003
34%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
69%
38-17, +832
22-41, -1082
34%
When Line was -189 to -159
MONEY LINE
When Line was +133 to +163
71%
10-4, +179
10-11, +336
47%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
65%
15-8, +280
8-16, -464
33%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
65%
21-11, +333
11-29, -1153
27%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
62%
25-15, +377
4-11, -658
26%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
61%
34-21, +624
21-35, -857
37%
vs CIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NYM
0%
0-0, 0
0-0, 0
0%
when Taijuan Walker starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Hunter Greene starts
53%
7-6, +34
3-12, -872
20%