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Thu 06/30 | 10:10 PM UTC | Houston
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
N.Y. Yankees 94-58, -219 ML
NYY -1.5+130
NYY -140
Over 7.5+105
Houston Astros 101-53, +1067 ML
HOU +1.5-155
HOU +118
Under 7.5-125

Expert Picks

MLB | N.Y. Yankees 1 @ Houston 2 | 06/30 | 10:10 PM UTC

N.Y. Yankees -128

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I don't recommend betting against the Astros at home often, but as I expected both Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena are out of the lineup (see news feed) after they collided on Wednesday -- plus, remember, Michael Brantley is on the injured list. The Yankees clearly have the better lineup today and also should have the "Luis" pitching edge with Severino over Garcia.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+4928 342-202-1 IN LAST 545 MLB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS
+792 35-18 IN LAST 53 HOU ML PICKS

Season Splits

94-58, -219 ML
101-53, +1067 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
73%
56-20, +1309
47-27, +576
63%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
66%
22-11, +440
20-11, +14
64%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
73%
52-19, +932
7-9, -115
43%
When Line was -153 to -123
MONEY LINE
When Line was +103 to +133
66%
8-4, +190
5-3, +232
62%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
64%
18-10, +63
0-2, -200
0%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
70%
21-9, +657
13-8, +317
61%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
77%
14-4, +369
12-5, +529
70%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
71%
43-17, +886
35-17, +647
67%
vs HOU
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NYY
50%
2-2, -72
2-2, +70
50%
when Luis Severino starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Luis Garcia starts
69%
9-4, +55
8-5, +31
61%