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Tue 05/24 | 10:40 PM UTC | St. Petersburg
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Miami Marlins 38-40, -463 ML
MIA +1.5-170
MIA +140
Over 6.5+100
Tampa Bay Rays 43-37, -470 ML
TB -1.5+145
TB -160
Under 6.5-120

Expert Picks

Miami 0 @ Tampa Bay 4 | 05/24 | 10:40 PM UTC

Tampa Bay -145

WIN

ANALYSIS: We have to back the Rays at home at a solid price behind stud lefty Shane McClanahan, who is second in the majors with 65 strikeouts and has a 2.33 ERA. Yep, Miami's Pablo Lopez has a 1.57 ERA, but he's not that good obviously and comes off his worst start of the year vs. Washington. Tampa Bay young star infielder Wander Franco is back in the starting lineup after not starting a couple with a quad injury. Miami young star infielder Jazz Chisholm may not start with hamstring tightness that forced him out Sunday (update: he's not in the lineup). ⚾ By the way, not a single person living in Florida that I've ever met actually calls this the Citrus Series. That's LAME.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+366 5-1 IN LAST 6 MIA ML PICKS

Season Splits

38-40, -463 ML
43-37, -470 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
45%
18-22, -576
24-17, +42
58%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
44%
8-10, -222
13-9, -67
59%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
35%
7-13, -501
19-12, +27
61%
When Line was +124 to +154
MONEY LINE
When Line was -177 to -147
30%
3-7, -309
3-2, -16
60%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
33%
4-8, -325
11-8, -176
57%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
50%
7-7, -29
9-6, -47
60%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
12%
1-7, -598
11-8, -21
57%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
33%
2-4, -239
2-3, -138
40%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIA
0%
0-0, 0
0-0, 0
0%
when Pablo Lopez starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Shane McClanahan starts
62%
5-3, +148
5-3, +15
62%