loading...
Fri 09/10 | 6:20 PM UTC | Chicago
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Francisco Giants 91-50, +3094 ML
--
--
Over 9.5-105
Chi. Cubs 65-77, -881 ML
--
--
Under 9.5-115

Expert Picks

San Francisco 6 @ Chi. Cubs 1 | 09/10 | 6:20 PM UTC

San Francisco -145

WIN

ANALYSIS: Had a 5-1 Thursday in MLB picks with a slight strategy change, and in that regard I should be taking Cubs runline here. Thing is, I can't do it. The Giants are playing their ideal starting lineup and while they are using a bullpen day, the first two guys planned have been lights out. I used to stay away from fading the Cubs when Kyle Hendricks was on the mound, but he has really fallen off of late overall and has an ERA of 5.56 at home and 5.08 during the day (used to be money in home day games). San Francisco is 35-15 in day games. The Giants were off Thursday or I'd worry about the early Pacific time start. Will Kris Bryant homer in his return to Wrigley?

author-image

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2390 228-155-6 IN LAST 389 MLB PICKS
+1152 17-4 IN LAST 21 CHC ML PICKS
+20 2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS

Season Splits

91-50, +3094 ML
65-77, -881 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
64%
90-50, +3022
65-76, -781
46%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
62%
45-27, +1991
39-33, +162
54%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
69%
57-25, +1270
29-56, -1351
34%
When Line was -155 to -125
MONEY LINE
When Line was +115 to +145
68%
17-8, +415
8-22, -1220
26%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
63%
21-12, +290
12-19, -337
38%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
64%
24-13, +809
21-30, -230
41%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
68%
53-24, +1540
17-24, -249
41%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
76%
16-5, +1043
11-8, +368
57%
vs CHC
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SF
75%
3-1, +142
1-3, -205
25%
when Dominic Leone starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Kyle Hendricks starts
100%
1-0, +170
17-12, +261
58%