Minnesota will welcome back third baseman Josh Donaldson in the lineup; he hadn't played since Saturday. That's not the lone reason why I'll back the Twins, but they do crush left-handed pitching, leading the majors with 42 homers off them and ranking No. 2 in slugging. Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35) is a promising young pitcher but has been considerably worse on the road and at night. Minnesota is 7-2 in its past nine as a favorite.

Tarik Skubal struggled in his last outing but before that he hadn’t allowed more than three runs in a start in his last eight starts. He only allowed two runs in five innings in his only start against the Twins this season. JA Happ has been much better at home this season but he has allowed 11 home runs in his last six starts and home runs in seven straight starts. The Tigers are hitting right now and they have sneakily won seven of their last 10 games while the Twins have lost seven of their last 10 games. The Tigers are bottom 5 and the Twins are top 10 if you look at wOBA against lefties, but if you look at just the last 3 weeks, the Tigers actually have the fifth best wOBA in the league against lefties while the Twins are ranked 20th.

I’ll go with the Over because I'm unsure which of the starters is more likely to have an off-day and the weather is great for hitting. You would expect Twins LHP J.A. Happ to be a bit better at home, where his ERA is 4.32 compared to 8.29 on the road, but the Tigers have been playing well recently and I think the veteran will struggle. Starting for the Tigers is LHP Tarik Skubal, who - like most young pitchers - will have a dip in his performance on the road. Skubal already has worrisome hard hit and barrel statistics. With three of the previous five meetings between these teams this year reaching double digits, including both series openers, I like this one to be offensive.