The Braves have gone Over 8-4-1 this season, while the light-hitting Cubs have stayed Under 7-3-2. The wind at Wrigley is reportedly blowing in at 10 mph Friday. Zach Davies had a great spring for the Cubs but has an 11.05 ERA in two regular-season starts. Drew Smyly was to start for Atlanta but has been scratched due to injury and Kyle Wright, a one-time touted prospect, will make his 2021 debut. The bottom line is the Cubs average only 2.7 runs per game while hitting .161. I’m on the Under.

Zach Davies was lit up for seven runs in less than two innings in his last start while Drew Smyly did not pitch well either. Both of these bullpens are missing a ton of key players, and they are taxed from their last series. We have a day game in Chicago so it will be as warm as a Chicago April gets, the only thing that worries me is the early game after a travel day. However, both of these pitchers are capable of getting rocked and both bullpens are tired so I like the over today.

The Cubbies aren't hitting at all but have been a bit better at home and were off Wednesday, which means their full bullpen is available -- unlike Atlanta, which had to use four relievers, including temporary closer AJ Minter, in Thursday's comeback win over Miami. Braves lefty starter Drew Smyly (0-0, 5.73) has not been good in his two starts, while Cubs right-hander Zach Davies (1-1, 11.05) was decent in one but awful in another -- but has had a track record of much more recent success than Smyly. The Cubs are 5-1 in their past six vs. lefties. They may not win this game but shouldn't lose by more than a run, so we will take Chicago at -146 on the runline. Update: Braves starting Kyle Wright with Smyly banged up, but like this play still if not even more.