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mlb - Wed 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC | Globe Life Field |

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ML
LAD -121
-140
Over / Under
8
8
ATS
LAD -1.5
-1.5

Matchup breakdown

Tampa Bay
LAD
PROJ SCORE
51-27
W-L
55-22
+1660
ML
+702
34-41
O/U
37-35
0.78
RUN DIFF
2.19
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Past Expert Picks

John Bollman

The Executive
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

Tampa Bay +120

LOSS

Tony Gonsolin was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA during the regular season but he has struggled in the postseason, allowing eight earned runs and seven walks in 7.2 IP. Tony Gonsolin started Game 2 and allowed one run on one home run in 1.1 IP. Blake Snell was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA during the regular season and 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs. He has had some trouble with command, and he can get in trouble with walks. He only allowed two runs in 4.2 IP in Game 2 but he allowed a home run and walked four batters. The Dodgers will have a quick hook with Gonsolin and they’ve crushed lefties this postseason to a .931 OPS. They used Dustin May two nights ago so he will most likely be unavailable, but Julio Urias should be available out of the bullpen for an inning or two. I think this game will be like Game 5 where the team who has the starter go the deepest will win the game.

John Bollman

The Executive
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

OVER 8

LOSS

Tony Gonsolin was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA during the regular season but he has struggled in the postseason, allowing eight earned runs and seven walks in 7.2 IP. Tony Gonsolin started Game 2 and allowed one run on one home run in 1.1 IP. Blake Snell was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA during the regular season and 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs. He has had some trouble with command, and he can get in trouble with walks. He only allowed two runs in 4.2 IP in Game 2 but he allowed a home run and walked four batters. The Dodgers will have a quick hook with Gonsolin and they’ve crushed lefties this postseason to a .931 OPS. Dave Roberts has showed us that his bullpen usage is very questionable and the Dodgers seeing Blake Snell for the second time in a week benefits them. I like the Over.

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

Tampa Bay +120

LOSS

The Rays have no quit in them and they have a great chance to force a Game 7. Tampa Bay has the edge with Blake Snell on the hill. He pitched well his last time out but was pulled after just 4.2 IP. Snell is fresh and may deliver one of his best starts of the postseason. The Dodgers are going with Tony Gonsolin and a bunch of arms out of the pen, so Tampa Bay has a great shot to win this game. These two teams have alternated wins and losses. The Rays will be very aggressive at the plate and on the bases. Tampa Bay is 18-4 in its last 22 games following a loss.

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

OVER 8

LOSS

This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Rays are facing a struggling Tony Gonsolin, who has a postseason ERA over nine. Look for Tampa Bay to come out swinging and aggressive as always on the bases. The Dodgers’ lineup is stacked and they are mashing the baseball. The Rays’ Randy Arozarena has the most hits in postseason history and I think he adds to that total with two or three more, including a home run. The Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 TB O/U PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

L.A. Dodgers -140

WIN

Blake Snell beat the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, but the Dodgers are 9-0 as the home team after playing as road favorites when seeking same-season revenge vs. their opponent’s starting pitcher. The Dodgers are also 12-0 as the home team after a game as road favorites in which Justin Turner was hitless in at least three at bats, but did not have multiple strikeouts. As for the Rays, they are 0-24 on the road after a game as home underdogs in which they had more strikeouts than hits and left more than six men on base. We are on the Dodgers to close it out.

+505 6-1 IN LAST 7 LAD ML PICKS
+505 6-1 IN LAST 7 TB ML PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Tue 10/27

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Dodgers | 10/28 | 12:08 AM UTC

OVER 8

LOSS

Since the start of the 2019 season, the Dodgers are 8-0 OU as the home team coming off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits, and the opponent’s starter has an ERA higher than 2.50. LA has gone Over the total by an average of 5.12 runs per game in this spot. Blake Snell beat the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, holding them to two hits while striking out nine. This activates an interesting starter-based OU indicator. The Rays are 8-0 OU with Snell when they won his last start vs. their opponent, while holding them to fewer than six hits and they won his last start. In these eight starts, Snell has averaged 4.62 innings of work and has a WHIP of 1.41. The Los Angeles offense knows that Tony Gonsolin needs run support and we expect it will give it to him. We make the Over the play.

+570 8-2 IN LAST 10 LAD O/U PICKS

Tampa Bay

player
SPBlakeSnell
30.11fan duel
17.22draft kings
1.1cbs sportsown% 95
player
CFRandyArozarena
10.61fan duel
8.02draft kings
2.66cbs sportsown% 15
player
2BBrandonLowe
9.64fan duel
7.29draft kings
2.34cbs sportsown% 98
PITCHINGINNWKHAERBBI
B. SnellBlake Snell5.10.256.03.61.802.1
RelieversRelievers3.90.143.54.12.101.8
HITTINGHRRBITBBBSB
J. ChoiJi-Man Choi0.830.450.411.380.460.01
R. ArozarenaRandy Arozarena0.970.630.511.680.330.09
A. MeadowsAustin Meadows0.920.510.431.600.350.06
B. LoweBrandon Lowe0.890.490.541.590.300.05
M. MargotManuel Margot0.960.450.421.500.250.20
J. WendleJoe Wendle0.940.440.311.360.220.14
W. AdamesWilly Adames0.840.410.381.420.330.05
K. KiermaierKevin Kiermaier0.660.370.411.100.230.13
M. ZuninoMike Zunino0.630.350.431.240.120.00

KEY PLAYER INJURIES

C. Reed, Y. Chirinos, C. Roe, J. Beeks, C. Poche, A. Kittredge

NOT PROJECTED TO START:

Hunter Renfroe, Brett Phillips, Yandy Diaz, Michael Perez, Michael Brosseau, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire.

L.A. Dodgers

player
SPTonyGonsolin
30.38fan duel
18.11draft kings
3.9cbs sportsown% 66
player
SSCoreySeager
11.37fan duel
8.63draft kings
3.25cbs sportsown% 97
player
3BJustinTurner
10.48fan duel
7.93draft kings
2.94cbs sportsown% 93
PITCHINGINNWKHAERBBI
T. GonsolinTony Gonsolin4.70.296.03.01.501.1
RelieversRelievers3.80.325.04.51.801.8
HITTINGHRRBITBBBSB
M. BettsMookie Betts0.850.640.411.390.590.16
C. SeagerCorey Seager1.070.670.571.960.390.02
J. TurnerJustin Turner1.000.540.521.720.470.03
M. MuncyMax Muncy0.730.530.521.290.550.04
W. SmithWill Smith0.810.440.631.450.410.01
C. BellingerCody Bellinger0.770.470.611.450.470.07
C. TaylorChris Taylor0.670.450.421.310.430.06
A. PollockA.J. Pollock0.900.500.511.620.220.08
A. BarnesAustin Barnes0.760.460.341.270.380.04

KEY PLAYER INJURIES

D. Price, C. Ferguson, J. Nelson

NOT PROJECTED TO START:

Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty
Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire.

last updated: 10/27/2020 22:39 GMT