The Red Sox have had an up and down season so far, but my model likes them Friday. My model has the Red Sox winning this game 43.03 percent of the time. With a payout around +165, the price translates to a projected win percentage of 38. My model sees a roughly 5 percent edge. Take the Red Sox on the value play, as they try to make it three in a row in New York.
| PITCHING | INN | W | K | HA | ER | BBI | |
| R. Weber | Ryan Weber | 5.1 | 0.25 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.00 | 1.9 |
| Relievers | Relievers | 3.9 | 0.18 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.00 | 2.0 |
| HITTING | H | R | RBI | TB | BB | SB | |
| K. Pillar | Kevin Pillar | 1.53 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 2.92 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| J. Martinez | J.D. Martinez | 1.43 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.85 | 0.39 | 0.03 |
| R. Devers | Rafael Devers | 1.14 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 1.95 | 0.24 | 0.04 |
| X. Bogaerts | Xander Bogaerts | 1.17 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 2.01 | 0.42 | 0.03 |
| C. Vazquez | Christian Vazquez | 1.18 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 2.33 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| A. Verdugo | Alex Verdugo | 1.34 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 2.14 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| M. Chavis | Michael Chavis | 1.06 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 1.82 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| J. Bradley | Jackie Bradley | 1.07 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 1.83 | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| J. Peraza | Jose Peraza | 1.28 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.89 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
KEY PLAYER INJURIESD. Pedroia, E. Rodriguez, D. Hernandez, C. Sale, M. Moreland, J. Taylor NOT PROJECTED TO START:Kevin Plawecki, Andrew Benintendi, Tzu-Wei Lin, Jonathan Arauz Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire. | |||||||
| PITCHING | INN | W | K | HA | ER | BBI | |
| J. Montgomery | Jordan Montgomery | 4.4 | 0.31 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 2.60 | 1.6 |
| Relievers | Relievers | 4.0 | 0.27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.30 | 1.4 |
| HITTING | H | R | RBI | TB | BB | SB | |
| D. LeMahieu | DJ LeMahieu | 1.26 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 0.03 |
| A. Judge | Aaron Judge | 1.04 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 2.02 | 0.59 | 0.05 |
| G. Torres | Gleyber Torres | 1.01 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 1.94 | 0.38 | 0.06 |
| G. Stanton | Giancarlo Stanton | 1.02 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 2.10 | 0.53 | 0.02 |
| A. Hicks | Aaron Hicks | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 1.68 | 0.66 | 0.05 |
| L. Voit | Luke Voit | 0.94 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 1.82 | 0.54 | 0.01 |
| G. Urshela | Giovanny Urshela | 0.91 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 1.47 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| B. Gardner | Brett Gardner | 0.81 | 0.60 | 0.42 | 1.56 | 0.39 | 0.08 |
| K. Higashioka | Kyle Higashioka | 0.78 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 1.45 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
KEY PLAYER INJURIEST. Kahnle, D. Otero, A. Chapman, D. German, M. Tanaka, L. Severino, Luis Cessa NOT PROJECTED TO START:Chris Iannetta, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Thairo Estrada Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire. | |||||||