The Mets are 1-4 in their last five games with a total of 6.5 or lower, illustrating how they struggle in tight games. They also are infamously inept at providing ace Jacob deGrom with run support. Moreover, the two-time Cy Young winner went just 1-2 against the Braves last season while allowing 20 hits and nine runs. What's more Rookie of the Year runner-up Mike Soroka went 2-0 against the Mets last season and had a 1.55 road ERA.

Jacob deGrom is a great pitcher, but this price is inflated for a game with virtually no home field advantage against a sharp young pitcher, and a dangerous Braves lineup. The addition of the DH definitely provides strength for the Mets with Cespedes, but I still have the Braves winning 41.5% of simulations. I'm taking the value with the Braves.

It's Opening Day for the Mets, which means Jacob deGrom is starting, and when Jacob deGrom is starting, it's time to fade the Mets. It's not deGrom's fault. He's great, but his team lets him down constantly. deGrom has won the last two NL Cy Young Awards, yet the Mets have gone 28-36 in his starts over the last two seasons. Considering they're typically the favorite when he toes the rubber, bettors have made a lot of money fading. Let's hope the tradition continues in 2020.