Jordan Zimmermann has been one of the easier fades this season at 0-6 with a 7.01 ERA and he has given up seven runs in each of his last two outings. Marcus Stroman is 5-10 with a 3.25 ERA this season and 3-4 with a 2.98 ERA on the road. These two starters faced off on opening day and each threw a gem, although the Blue Jays came out with the win. The Tigers have only won 12 games at home all year and they are 3-8 when Zimmermann starts.

The Tigers are mired in a 4-24 swoon and I think Toronto will be the next team to take advantage. Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann has been shelled for 14 earned runs over his last two starts covering 7.1 innings, and he's 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA at home this season. Lay it.

Both these teams' offenses have turned it around to an extent over the last few weeks. But Detroit was shut down by Marcus Stroman earlier this year. Stroman is auditioning to be traded to a contender -- my computer model says he does fine and the Blue Jays offense goes off. Toronto wins 68 percent of my simulations, which offer an implied probability of -213. Toronto at this price is a strong value.