The Giants are one game away from being .500. After an awful start to the season with no hitting and bad pitching, the Giants are winning nightly. They've won 13 of their last 15 games, including their last six. There's nice value tonight with baseball's hottest team. I'm on the Giants.

Defending Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is going for the Mets, but New York hasn't shown up when he has, posting a poor 6-13 record in his starts. Meanwhile, San Francisco, not exactly a world-killer this year, is 7-2 when Tyler Beede gets the ball. My projections still back the Mets, but only by the slimmest of margins -- the Giants win nearly 50 percent of my simulations. Take the Giants as a wise value pick at a huge underdog price.