This is a reasonable price on the Cardinals facing Chris Archer. Despite Archer racking up 10 strikeouts last time out, he's still 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA on the road. St. Louis is a much better team at home and should bounce back after Tuesday's frustrating loss.

Chris Archer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA this season and 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA on the road. Daniel Ponce de Leon is 1-0 with a 1.99 ERA and he has a 1.02 ERA in three starts at home. Josh Bell is out of the lineup today and while the Cards have been underwhelming this season, they are still 27-20 at home. Lay the home favorite.

In four starts, Cardinals pitcher Daniel Ponce de Leon has a 1.25 ERA. St. Louis managed only one run Tuesday night, but that snapped a four-game win streak and the 3-1 defeat was only the second time in six games the Cards had allowed more than two runs. St. Louis gets to Chris Archer and wins nearly 70 percent of my simulations, which at this price makes it a major bargain.