The Padres had lost six straight games through Saturday, but then bounced back to win their last three. They now head to Washington to face Max Scherzer, who got roughed up for seven runs in his last start at Miami six days ago. The Nationals are only 1-4 behind him this season, and they've lost all three of his home starts. San Diego's Matt Strahm has allowed just two runs over his last three starts. Padres are the play Friday

It's a rare day when Max Scherzer is undervalued at home but that's exactly what we have tonight thanks to the hype around Matt Strahm. I have the Nationals winning 66 percent of simulations in this matchup, suggesting the line should be closer to -195. Lay it.