The Red Sox have won Brian Johnson's last eight starts. It's hard to know what to expect out of Toronto's Marcus Stroman: he's been shellacked in four of his last eight starts but pitched brilliantly in the other four. I'll stick with the dominant home team and look for Boston to enter the break 34-13 at Fenway.

Marcus Stroman is struggling mightily. His ERA is a sky-high 5.90 and he's allowed at least five earned runs in five of his last nine starts. My simulations indicate it doesn't get any easier for him on Sunday as J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are projecting to have boffo games. They're also pointing to a Boston win more than two-thirds of the time by an average of more than one run. The Red Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 Sunday starts and that percentage should increase.