Jack Flaherty comes off two great performances, allowing one run combined over 11.1 innings. The Cards won both games and both exceeded the Over. His last four starts have been at home, but the road is where he has been his best (2.49 ERA) and all four of his road starts have stayed Under the total. Only three of Junior Guerra's 13 starts have gone Over. Under is the top play here.

My data shows the Brewers getting the best of the Cardinals more than 60 percent of the time in simulations for their Friday showdown. This provides value on Milwaukee at a pick'em price. The Brewers are on an 11-5 home spurt against winning teams and are 5-2 in Junior Guerra's last seven Friday starts. The Cardinals are in a 5-11 funk in road contests against winning teams.