The Red Sox are in a funk, they've lost three of four while the Twins have won three of four (not counting Wednesday night's game). Kyle Gibson has mowed down the competition of late, with a 1.69 ERA over his last five starts and a .149 batting average allowed in June. Go with the host Twins.

The projection model sees the Red Sox taking down the Twins on Thursday in more than 60 percent of simulations, making Boston a value play at this meager price. Boston is 8-2 in starts by Rick Porcello on full rest, while the Twins are 1-4 in the past five home starts by Kyle Gibson.