The wOBA model likes the road value with Luis Castillo and the Reds. My model is projecting Nick Pivetta to struggle against this Reds lineup. The Reds should be -115 favorites, not the Phillies.

Reds starter Luis Castillo has a great fastball and changeup, but only 17 career starts under his belt. Philadelphia is a good hitters park and the Phillies are off to a solid start offensively, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is another 25-year old that looks like he is going to be a top-flight pitcher with a big fastball and solid curveball. But he's also inexperienced. I made the total 9 in this one, which makes the Over a clear play Wednesday.

Nick Pivetta is off to a strong start (2.79 ERA over two starts) and the Phils have won his last six starts dating to last season. Lay the reasonable price.