UFC Freedom 250 odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Topuria vs. Gaethje fight card for Sunday

The South Lawn of the White House serves as the staging area for UFC Freedom 250. The event will help commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States. The card will feature the main event, a lightweight title bout between champion Ilia Topuria and interim champion Justin Gaethje. Topuria is coming off a knockout win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025, while Gaethje defeated Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision at UFC 324 this past January to win the interim UFC lightweight championship. 

The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the White House. The latest UFC Freedom 250 odds list Topuria the -500 favorite (risk $500 to win $100), while Gaethje comes back at +380. The over/under for total rounds is 1.5 (-115/-115).

In the co-main event, Alex Pereira battles Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight interim title. Gane is the slight -112 favorite but the favored method of victory is Pereira via KO/TKO/DQ at +150.

Before locking in any UFC Freedom 250 picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethje to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje picks: The model projects the Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit heavyweight bout will go over 1.5 rounds at +160.

"Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing," McClure said. "The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in."

The model is also targeting a number of other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns +470! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje picks!

Which other fighters do you need to back at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Sunday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!