UFC heads to Mexico City this Saturday with a pair of ranked flyweights headlining the card. UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh will feature sixth-ranked Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) facing No. 15 Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1). The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Arena CDMX, and each of the six bouts features a Mexican fighter. In the main event, Moreno is the -205 favorite (risk $205 to win $100) in the latest UFC Fight Night odds, while Kavanagh, who is a late replacement for this fight, is the +170 underdog.
The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is a bantamweight contest between Marlon Vera and David Martinez. With nine straight wins, Martinez is the -305 favorite (risk $305 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features seven fights, including a matchup of top 10 women's bantamweights in Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson.
Before locking in any UFC picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.
McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.
The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!
One of the model's top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+3.8% edge) in the middleweight bout of Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina, which returns +100. "The model sees a 75 percent decision rate with just a 25 percent finish probability and a 2.60 round average fight length. Stylistically this should extend," McClure said.
The model is also targeting four other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +500! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks!
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