UFC heads back to Las Vegas this week, highlighted by a rematch bout between lightweights Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Holloway (27-8) looks to defend his symbolic UFC "BMF" title. Oliveira (36-11-1), meanwhile, is coming off a submission win over Mateusz Gamrot as he extended the UFC record for most finishes (21) and most submissions (17), as he earned Performance of the Night honors. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from T-Mobile Arena. CBS will simulcast from 8-10 p.m. ET. In the main event, Holloway is the -215 favorite (risk $215 to win $100) in the latest UFC 326 odds, while Oliveira is the +165 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is 2.5, with the Over favored at -154.
The co-main event for UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira is a middleweight contest between Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder. With a 17-2 record, Borralho is the -250 favorite (risk $250 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features seven fights, with four bouts among the early preliminaries.
Before locking in any UFC 326 picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.
McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.
The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!
One of the model's top UFC 326 picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+6.8% edge) in the middleweight bout of Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage, which returns +140. "My model shows 45.7% probability this fight goes Over 1.5 rounds," McClure said. "The decision rate is 72% in simulation and the average fight length comes out to 2.60 rounds. Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing. The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in."
The model is also targeting four other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +200! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliveira picks!
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