SportsLine Projection Model: David Price opting out doesn't move needle, but Mike Trout would

The Los Angeles Dodgers essentially had to take David Price's mammoth salary this past offseason as a "tax" when they traded for ex-AL MVP Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox, but L.A. will not have to pay Price a nickel in 2020 after the southpaw opted out of playing in the regular season. Only players who are considered "high risk" get paid their pro-rated salary and Price isn't one of those. He will forfeit around $12 million.

Here is what the 34-year-old Price posted on social media about his decision: "After considerable thought and discussion with my family and the Dodgers, I have decided it is in the best interest of my health and my family's health for me to not play this season. I will miss my teammates and will be cheering for them throughout the season and on to a World Series victory. I'm sorry I won't be playing for you this year, but look forward to representing you next year."

The Dodgers' MLB futures odds at William Hill sportsbook did not change in the wake of this decision. They are +375 co-favorites with the New York Yankees to win the World Series, -450 to win the NL West for an eighth year in a row and have an MLB-high win total of 38 in the 60-game coronavirus-shortened season.

Price won the AL Cy Young Award in 2012 with the Tampa Bay Rays but frankly isn't that guy any longer. Last year, he was limited to 22 starts due to injury with the Red Sox and was 7-5 with a 4.28 ERA – good for a Wins Above Replacement number of 1.8. The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) did not ding the Dodgers on their win total with this news but slightly downgraded the team's chances of winning the division, pennant and World Series.

Price is the biggest-name player to opt-out thus far but will not be the last (Braves outfielder Nick Markakis did Monday). Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout, easily the best player in the sport and a three-time AL MVP, reportedly is considering doing the same. He and his wife Jessica are expecting their first child in August.

"I love playing this game. We want to play," Trout said. "It's going to come down to how safe we're going to be. If there's an outbreak, you definitely have to reconsider. There's a lot of questions. I love baseball, but I have to do what's right for my family. It's going to be a tough decision if something happens down the road. I think the biggest thing is, these next few weeks, if I test positive, it's my first child, and I have to be there. If I'm positive, doctors have told me I can't see the baby for 14 days. Jess won't see the baby for 14 days if she tests positive. We're going to be upset."

Trout is the +200 favorite at William Hill to win a fourth MVP Award – only Barry Bonds with seven has won more than three in a career. The Model views Trout worth 1.6 victories in this shortened season; his WAR last year was 8.3, third-best in MLB behind the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger (9.0; he won NL MVP) and the Astros' Alex Bregman (8.4; he was second to Trout for AL MVP).

The 2020 MLB regular-season schedule will be released Monday at 6 p.m. ET on the MLB Network. The season is set to begin July 23. Reportedly the two games that night, both nationally televised, will be Yankees-Nationals and Giants-Dodgers. 

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