Rays vs. Red Sox odds, line, prediction: Proven MLB model reveals Friday picks for July 17

The second half of the 2026 MLB season begins for a pair of AL East rivals on Friday afternoon, as the Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays (56-38) are in first place in the division, three games in front of the New York Yankees. The Red Sox (46-48) are 10 games behind Tampa, but there are a lot of games to be played. Griffin Jax (5-6, 3.47 ERA) will start for the Rays, while the Sox counter with Jake Bennett (4-3, 2.64).

First pitch at Fenway Park in Boston is set for 1:35 p.m. ET, the first game of a day-night doubleheader. The Red Sox are -120 favorites on the money line (risk $120 to win $100) in the latest Rays vs. Red Sox odds, with the Rays at at +100. The over/under for total runs is 8.5.

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The model has simulated Rays vs. Red Sox 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the total, and is also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

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