The 10th-ranked Boise State Broncos aim for their second straight title when they host the No. 20 UNLV Rebels on Friday in the 2024 Mountain West Conference Championship Game, a rematch of last year's contest. Boise State (11-1, 7-0), which ended the regular season with a 10-game winning streak, is making its third straight appearance in the conference title game and seventh in eight years after rolling past the Rebels 44-20 at UNLV in 2023 for its third Mountain West championship in that span. The Broncos have won eight straight meetings with the Rebels (10-2, 6-1), including a 29-24 road triumph on Oct. 25.
Kickoff at Albertsons Stadium is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Boise State vs. UNLV odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 57.5. Before making any UNLV vs. Boise State picks or CFB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also is a strong 30-19 on all top-rated picks over the past 10 weeks of this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen impressive returns!
The model knows Boise State is third in the nation in scoring with an average of 40.6 points and has been held under 28 just once in its 12 games this season. The Broncos also rank fifth in total offense (478.3 yards) and sixth in rushing (253.50), thanks in large part to Ashton Jeanty. The junior running back leads the country with 2,288 yards on the ground, the fifth-most in NCAA history, and posted his fifth 200-yard performance of the campaign in last week's 34-18 victory against Oregon State with 226 on 37 carries. Jeanty, who has run for a touchdown in 11 of his 12 outings and is first in the nation with 28, has gained at least 127 yards in every contest and racked up 153 versus UNLV in last year's conference title game.
The model also has taken into account that the Rebels are coming off their fourth consecutive win and sixth in seven contests, a 38-14 home triumph over Nevada last Saturday. Senior quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for 104 yards and a score while sophomore running back Jai'Den Thomas rushed for 135 yards and a TD as UNLV reached double figures in victories for just the third time in school history and first since going 11-2 in 1984. Williams threw two scoring passes while running for 105 yards and a touchdown against Boise State in their meeting in October.
The model has simulated UNLV vs. Boise State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time!
Who wins Boise State vs. UNLV, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model that is 30-19 on top-rated CFB picks over the past 10 weeks!
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