It's a big week for the column as we went 4-1 in both SuperContest and Circa Million, only missing our Texans +2.5 pick by a half-point thanks to a back-breaking interception at the end of the game. We used seven different teams across the two cards and hit six of them, and it's hard to be disappointed in that type of showing. However, we're going to need some 5-0 weeks to wind up in the money at the end of the year, so it's unfortunate we weren't able to get one last week.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing an underdog in a divisional rivalry: the Tennessee Titans +3.5 at the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts saved their season last week with an impressive win over one of the best teams in the league in the Kansas City Chiefs. But was it actually that impressive? The Chiefs did everything they could to lose that game, from muffing punts (which led to a three-play, four-yard TD drive for Indy) to missing field goals to committing penalties in the worst situations and then Patrick Mahomes throwing just his fourth September interception ever. The Colts needed a 16-play, eight-minute TD drive to go ahead with just 24 seconds left on the clock. I certainly am not convinced their offense is back on track, but the pressure is now off to get their first win.
The Titans took a two-TD lead into halftime against the Raiders while reaching the end zone on each of their first three drives, but then barely hung on from there as the offense disappeared in the second half. They certainly have their own questions to answer, but I believe the offense is moving in the right direction, with Derrick Henry getting move involved in the passing game and Robert Woods starting to get the ball. Jeffery Simmons is a problem for a Colts offensive line that isn't playing as well as it has in years past, as well. I believe the Titans have the better coach and quarterback at this point, and because of that, I'm surprised this line is north of 3 and possibly even tipping to 4 in the market.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.
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