NFL Week 2 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 3 lines
Mike Tierney reviews this past week's betting results and previews some of Week 3's line movement
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Welcome to our Monday review of the NFL weekend from a betting standpoint and a glance at line movements for the upcoming set of games.
Each Monday in this space, we will recognize the most significant outright wins by underdogs, review the baddest of bad beats, glimpse at the games that most impacted how the sportsbooks fared financially and list the matchups whose lookahead spreads were majorly affected by outcomes and injuries.
Let's kick off the Week 2 review, with a pair of results pending, on an oddity. Four teams (Broncos, 49ers, Rams, Packers) that began the season 0-1 straight-up were favored by between 8.5 and 10 points. All won outright, while San Francisco and Green Bay also covered. Another squad, the Bengals, was a seven-point pick. Cincinnati went down to the Cowboys, ATS and SU and every other way.
Those four heftiest favorites evaded upsets. The next three were not so fortunate.
Minus ailing quarterback Dan Prescott, Dallas (+7) mustered up enough points to knock off Cincinnati 20-17 on a buzzer-beating field goal. The Cowboys wound up at a massive +271 on the money line.
Cleveland (-6.5) and Las Vegas (-5.5), both cozily ahead well into their games at home, somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, providing us plenty of material for the Bad Beats section. Take a bow, Jets and Cardinals. New York's money line settled in at +216, and Arizona's at +192.
The Bengals and the Raiders might wish to avoid reading the papers this week, or they could stumble across this circulating stat: Of 400 teams that opened 0-2 since the merger, only 38 have landed in the playoffs. They might find comfort in knowing that the playoff field grew to 14 beginning last season.
Overtime can be torturous for those with a play on the total. Case in point: Arizona versus Las Vegas on Sunday.
The Raiders were motoring toward a likely game-closing field goal try to untangle a 23-23 tie. Even if they were to ultimately miss the kick, the Cardinals would have had little time to score anything other than a field goal. The Under, which opened at 50.5 and drifted up to 52, seemed safely in the bank.
Then Arizona pulled off a scoop-and-six, its return of a fumble recovery resulting in a 29-23 win — and a push or worse for Under bettors. The Under appeared all but locked down near the end of regulation. The Cardinals forced OT with a touchdown and a two-point conversion with zeroes on the fourth-quarter clock.
The groundwork for another bad beat was bad decision-making by Cleveland running backs. First, with the Browns nursing a 24-17 lead, Kareem Hunt carried the ball out of bounds for a first down at the Jets' 12-yard line that halted the clock at 2:02. The misjudgment only cost the Browns a couple seconds of getting closer to the finish line, but still.
Second, Nick Chubb broke free for a touchdown run. Had he gone down on purpose before reaching the end zone, Cleveland could have run down the clock to a precious few ticks and attempted a chip-shot field goal for a two-score margin. Of course, the Browns, ahead 30-17, blew the PAT, then yielded two TDs to New York in a 31-30 stunner. The collapse cost Cleveland backers who took the point spread option at -6 or 6.5, as well as the money line at between -263 and -266.
Corks were popping and champagne was flowing, figuratively speaking — or maybe literally — at the sportsbooks over Dallas' victory. The Bengals were as heavily bet as any team. Entering the weekend, 88% of the tickets and 91% of the money at Caesars had been targeted toward them.
The sportsbooks also scored on the San Francisco-Seattle game. The Seahawks, soundly beaten, drew about $7 of every $10 placed on the matchup.
ESPN reported that wagering on the Sunday games was fairly evenly split between opponents. At Caesars, it indicated, betting on seven of the dozen afternoon games was divided virtually right down the middle.
Money line upsets tend to bring smiles to the sportsbooks, and five winners (Dolphins, Jets, Jaguars, Cowboys, Cardinals) kept the mood upbeat.
The books have a lot riding on Monday night's Titans-Bills matchup. As the weekend approached, 72% of the bets and 83% of the handle at Caesars were placed on Buffalo.
A trio of spreads have deviated by at least three points from the lookahead lines, and one team is largely responsible for two shifts.
The Jaguars, who filleted Indianapolis 24-0, are suddenly a seven-point underdog against the Chargers at home. That's down from the original 10.5. Another factor is a rib injury to Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert, whose status is uncertain.
The Colts, meanwhile, are receiving 6.5 points at home from Kansas City, well over the 2.5 from the lookaheads. Indy has registered 20 points this season despite playing nine full quarters. The Chiefs have scored 20 or more points in three of their four halves. The Colts-Chiefs total experienced a major move in tandem, shrinking from 52 to 47.
Washington went from +1 to +4 against the Eagles after a 36-27 defeat to Detroit that was more one-sided than the score suggests. The spread is subject to further change in the wake of Philadelphia's Monday night outcome against Minnesota.
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