For the second straight week, an injury to the Cardinals quarterback ruined what was otherwise a pretty good card. Since there's zero chance I'd back Trace McSorley against Tom Brady, we don't have to worry about a third straight loss with the Cardinals. Let's see if we can close strong in the final three weeks, including in Week 16 where weather is going to play a major factor in several games.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8% hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing one of the hottest teams in the league laying less than a field goal: the Detroit Lions -2.5 at the Carolina Panthers.

The Lions offense looked like it took a step back last week while struggling with the cold weather, but it still put up the most yards any team has had against the Jets defense since Week 2, and the most pass yards the Jets defense has allowed since Week 3. With cold weather wins against the Bears, Giants and Jets this season, I think we can put that narrative to rest. The Lions get an easier defensive matchup this week, and the Panthers rank just 25th in sack rate, so I expect the Detroit offensive line to control things up front.

The Panthers predictably couldn't run the ball against an elite Steelers rush unit, and with Sam Darnold unable to win games with his arm, that meant the Steelers were able to secure a pretty solid win while giving up just 209 yards to Carolina. It could be more of the same this week after the Lions allowed just 50 rushing yards last week and 22 the week before against the Vikings, and their opportunistic defense has a chance to give Jared Goff and Co. short fields if it can capitalize on Darnold's mistakes.

If the Lions are a top-10 team -- and they've played like one since the start of November -- they should be able to beat weaker opponents on the road by at least a field goal. I'm locking them to do just that on both of my contest cards this week.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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