Quarterback Joe Burrow had a historically good season last year for LSU in winning the Heisman Trophy and leading the Tigers to the national championship. He deserved to go No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft to Cincinnati. However, William Hill oddsmakers don't expect Burrow to lead the Bengals to the playoffs this year as they are +650 long shots on the moneyline to make it and -1000 to miss out yet again following a 2-14 campaign.
NFL history is also against Burrow accomplishing the feat as rookie quarterbacks rarely get their teams to the postseason in Year 1 – and none have led one to a Super Bowl. Since 2010, just six rookie quarterbacks (minimum of seven starts) have led their team to the playoffs:
2011 Bengals: Andy Dalton, a second-round pick out of TCU, improved Cincinnati from 4-12 in 2010 to 9-7 and a Wild-Card spot in his first season. He's the only Bengals rookie QB to ever reach the playoffs.
2012 Colts: Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in that year's draft from Stanford, improved Indianapolis from 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 as a rookie and a Wild-Card spot.
2012 Redskins: Robert Griffin III, the No. 2 overall pick from Baylor who would go on to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, improved Washington from 5-11 the year before to 10-6 and the NFC East title.
2012 Seahawks: Russell Wilson wasn't supposed to win Seattle's starting job as a third-round pick out of Wisconsin but did in camp and improved the Seahawks from 7-9 in 2011 to 11-5 and a Wild-Card spot.
2016 Cowboys: Dak Prescott was a fourth-round afterthought in that year's draft but took over as the starter from Day 1 for an injured Tony Romo and improved Dallas from 4-12 the year before to 13-3 and the NFC's top seed in '16. Alas, the Cowboys were upset at home in the Divisional Round by Green Bay.
2018 Ravens: Lamar Jackson, the former Heisman winner from Louisville who was the final pick of the 2018 first round of the draft, wasn't the starter until Joe Flacco injured his hip about halfway through the season. The Ravens won the AFC North title, but Jackson struggled mightily in a Wild-Card home loss to the Chargers. He of course won the NFL MVP Award last year.
For what it's worth, a total of 50 rookie quarterbacks have started at least eight games in a season since 2000. Thirteen of them (26 percent) finished with a winning record. The Bengals' AFC North, though, had more than any division with four: Kyle Boller, Dalton, Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger.
Burrow's NFL debut – coronavirus willing – will be Sept. 13 at home with the Bengals as 3-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers.
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