Mets vs. Phillies odds, line, prediction: Proven MLB model reveals Thursday picks for July 16

The second half of the 2026 MLB season begins on Thursday night, as the Philadelphia Phillies, gracious host of the MLB All-Star Game, host the divisional rival New York Mets on Thursday. Philadelphia (54-43) is just two games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, while the Mets (40-57) have a lot of work to do to get back in the thick of any playoff chase. Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA) goes for the Phillies, while the Mets hand the ball to Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17). 

First pitch at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are -136 favorites on the money line (risk $136 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds, with New York at +113. The over/under for total runs is 9.5.

Before making any Mets vs. Phillies picks, or MLB predictions, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered the 2026 MLB All-Star break on a sizzling 33-21 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following could have seen strong returns!

The model has simulated Mets vs. Phillies 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and is also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

Who wins Phillies vs. Mets, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mets vs. Phillies money line you should be all over, all from the model that entered Week 16 of the MLB season on a red-hot 32-21 run!