Fantasy Football 2024: Using man coverage data to predict future Fantasy success
SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs breaks down how different receivers perform against different coverages
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If you're deep enough into the football matrix that you're here reading this newsletter, you likely are aware of the fact that zone coverage and two-high safety usage have been steadily increasing in recent years. In 2023, only 24% of defensive plays were charted as man coverage. It's pretty rare to see a defense match up and play straight-up man-to-man from the snap -- only four teams were charted as using man coverage on over one-third of defensive plays.
If receivers are likely to be running the vast majority of routes against zone, why does beating man coverage even matter? Does it matter?
Matt Harmon's research on ReceptionPerception.com shows that success rate vs. man actually carries a notably higher correlation with future Fantasy scoring than success rate vs. zone.
I've started tracking coverage data at the wide receiver position in 2019. The data I have available dates back to 2017, so I've studied the 2017-2018 seasons as well. As I've monitored this data, I've noticed that many of the receivers who end up breaking out and turning into Fantasy stars posted excellent early-career man coverage data. There are some exceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown turned into a Fantasy superstar even with early-career man coverage data that was mid. He's an elite zone coverage beater in an offensive environment perfectly suited for his skillset. There are exceptions, not every elite Fantasy WR comes from the elite man coverage data tree.
Beating man coverage sure seems like an important early-career signal of long-term success at the wide receiver position, and it makes sense. Even though the league is moving to more zone coverage, being able to win in one-on-one situations is always going to be important at the WR position. That's especially true when in scoring distance.
2023 man coverage rates:
21% — outside of the red zone
33% — in the red zone
39% — inside the 10
The league leaders in red zone and end zone targets each year are a lot of the same players who show up at the top of man coverage efficiency rates. Coincidence? I think not!
Which wide receivers perform best against man and which ones should you target in Fantasy leagues in 2024? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' Do Not Draft list, all from one of the nation's most-accurate rankers!
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