Fantasy Football 2024: Fun with on/off splits reveals telling data on Packers, Seahawks and other WR splits
SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs breaks down on/off splits and why they can be so important in Fantasy
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As a broke college kid, I discovered the thrill of potentially turning a small bet into thousands of dollars playing Daily Fantasy Sports. I was in love with both the NFL and NBA, and I heard about DFS in January after the NFL season was already over. Within my first week of playing daily fantasy hoops, I happened to win a contest with roughly 5,000 people in it. It was my first taste of playing Fantasy sports for money, previously my buddies and I had only competed for bragging rights. It's a miracle that I didn't fall down a gambling rabbit hole.
Instead, I fell down an information rabbit hole, becoming obsessed with the process of projecting how playing time and opportunities to touch the ball would be spread among a team full of basketball players. I found tools that enabled me to examine each team's splits when certain players were on or off the court, and this capability truly felt like a superpower coming from a background of mostly guesswork – at that time, advanced NFL analytics tools were tough to come by. This newfound world of hyper-specific data capabilities fascinated me, and returning to an archaic NFL research process the following fall was painful.
Fantasy football has come a long way as an industry since then, advanced analytics are more readily available than ever before. It is with immense gratitude that I can reflect on those days, as the current Fantasy football analysis landscape is bright and beautiful to the point of overstimulation. As someone who has been seeking out the edges of this space for a long time, I feel spoiled by the amount of information available in 2024.
In seconds, I can find out what percentages of A.J. Brown's routes resulted in a target on plays when Jalen Hurts was blitzed. Within that split, I can filter out plays in which Dallas Goedert was on the field. I can filter it further to only include plays in which the Eagles were playing with a lead. The possibilities are endless! There is so much for us to learn, and each offseason I set out to learn as much as I can. I owe it to my broke college self! And in honor of the early 2010s daily Fantasy NBA grind that sparked my curiosity for what on/off splits can teach us, I'm psyched to present the NFL version – I dug into any instances of missed time from the 2023 season with curiosity about what those results might mean for the 2024 season and beyond!
In this space, the focus will be specifically on relevant on/off player splits. How might a full season of Will Levis at QB impact DeAndre Hopkins? How much was Puka Nacua's target share impacted by Cooper Kupp's absence in 2023? What does the trade of Diontae Johnson possibly mean for George Pickens? Those are the types of player-specific questions that we'll explore today. If you are curious about some of the other capabilities of 2024's cutting-edge analytics tools and what I've been learning about this offseason, I invite you to seek out the Fantasy Football Today newsletter. You can have my work delivered directly to your email inbox!
After digging through each team's 2023 season and projecting forward to 2024, there were 12 situations that stood out to me. I'm excited to share them with you in this space!
What do on/off splits tell us about which players to target and avoid in 2024? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' running back target analysis, plus get the entire 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Bible, all from one of the nation's most-accurate rankers!
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs hails from one of the heaviest three wide receiver offenses in college football (with the Washington Huskies).
Seattle's target per route run rate with Jaxon Smith-Njigba off of the field in 2023:
27% – DK Metcalf
24% – Tyler Lockett
Seattle's target per route run rate with Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field in 2023:
22% – Lockett
20% – Metcalf
20% – Smith-Njigba
The Seahawks used three-receiver sets 62% of the time offensively in 2023. The Washington Huskies posted a 79% rate under Grubb's offensive design. We'll likely see more Smith-Njigba than during his rookie season, and it's possible that will result in fewer targets for Seattle's longtime stud WR duo. Of the two, Metcalf's targets were most notably impacted by Smith-Njigba's presence in 2023.
Hamstring injuries limited Christian Watson to only nine games in his second season. Jordan Love's distribution of Green Bay's receiving volume looked significantly different with Watson on/off the field.
Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed shared the field for a 159-route sample in 2023, including the playoffs. Displayed below is how the receiving volume was dispersed on those routes.
Targets
35 - Watson
29 - Reed
24 - Doubs
Air yards
547 - Watson
278 - Reed
246 - Doubs
Receiving yards
335 - Watson
200 - Reed
158 - Doubs
Dontayvion Wicks only ran 56 routes while sharing the field with Watson, so we can hardly draw conclusions on how Watson impacted him. Reed's sample size with Watson on/off the field is large enough to speculate on, though, and what I found is certainly interesting.
Reed with Watson off of the field:
212 routes
29.2% target per route run rate
2.55 yards per route run
Those are elite rates. For reference, only nine receivers ran at least 200 routes and averaged more than 2.5 yards per route run in 2023. Of that group, only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb finished with a target per route run rate of 29% or higher.
Okay, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. What did Reed's splits with Watson on the field look like?
Reed with Watson on the field:
174 routes
18.4% target per route run rate
1.45 yards per route run
There's the cold water we needed! Those rates are closer to resembling the work that Curtis Samuel and Josh Downs put in last season.
It's anyone's guess as to how many routes Watson will be available for in his third season, but it does seem clear that Reed's short-term value hinges heavily on his teammate's availability. From a long-term perspective, what Reed was able to accomplish with Watson off of the field suggests that there may be untapped potential for a 2023 second-round selection.
Kelce with Rice on the field:
313 routes
21.1% target per route run rate
1.63 yards per route run
Kelce with Rice off of the field:
200 routes
27.5% target per route run rate
2.37 yards per route run
This doesn't come as much of a surprise, given the overlap between the two route trees. No qualified receiver had a lower average depth of target than Rice in 2023.
The Bengals have slowly raised Chase's slot rate each season, with 24% of his routes coming from inside in Year 3. Chase has been more productive from the slot (2.4 yards per route run average) than the perimeter (2.14) throughout his career, and only Tyreek Hill drew targets on a higher percentage of slot routes (minimum 100 routes) in 2023.
Over the past two seasons, Chase has recorded a 24.1% target per route run rate while sharing the field with Boyd, compared to a 27.6% rate across 225 routes run without Cincy's long-time slot man on the field. With rookie field-stretcher Jermaine Burton the most likely candidate for the WR3 job in Cincy, it's possible that we see Chase soak up more targets and catch-and-run opportunities from the slot than ever before.
Including the playoffs, the two shared the field for a 397-route sample. Displayed below are their splits while on the field together.
Targets:
105 – Nacua
96 – Kupp
Receiving yards:
1,055 – Nacua
734 – Kupp
PPR points:
203 – Nacua
164 – Kupp
Njoku's 2023 target per route run rate:
16.8% - Watson on
26.6% - Watson off
In 2022, Njoku posted a 21% rate with Watson off of the field, compared to a 17% rate with Watson in at QB.
Engram's target per route run rate:
20.7% - Kirk on
26.5% - Kirk off
Engram's yards per route run:
1.41 - Kirk on
1.76 - Kirk off
Kirk was Jacksonville's clear top target, the target distribution drastically changed when he was off the field. Calvin Ridley's target per route run rate plummeted from 25.7% without Kirk on the field to 17.5% while sharing the field with Kirk.
I wish that we had a large enough sample size for me to give you relevant information on how Anthony Richardson's target distribution might look, but the electric rookie barely played. What I can share with you is that Downs came surprisingly close to matching his veteran teammate's receiving production while sharing the field with him as a rookie.
Pittman and Downs were on the field together for 424 routes. Displayed below are their respective receiving totals from within that split.
Targets:
108 - Pittman
88 - Downs
Receiving yards:
824 - Pittman
727 - Downs
PPR points:
165.4 - Pittman
145.7 - Downs
Addison scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, which is certainly exciting. There are troubling trends written all over his target-related metrics, though.
Addison's target per route run rate:
Jefferson on - 15% (283 routes)
Jefferson off - 19.5% (323 routes)
A 15 percent rate with Jefferson on the field is scary as Minnesota prepares for a season with either Sam Darnold or a rookie QB running the offense. That rate is similar to the likes of Rashod Bateman, Justin Watson, and Gabe Davis. That's not a range that we typically find productive Fantasy players falling into.
Johnson on the field:
349 – Routes
17.5% – Target per route run rate
1.68 – Yards per route run
Johnson off the field:
187 – Routes
24.1% – Target per route run rate
2.96 – Yards per route run
Johnson missed Weeks 2-5, and in those games, Pickens posted the following target shares: 34.5%, 22.2%, 25.9%, 32.3%.
I would never have guessed that those types of target shares were a realistic possibility for Pickens. Prior to that, we had no proof of the Steelers using him as anything other than a low-target volume, vertical field-stretcher. This is a super exciting development in his perceivable career trajectory.
With Jeudy on the field over the 2022-23 seasons, Sutton drew a target on just 18% of his routes and averaged 1.37 yards per route run. Without Jeudy on the field during that time, Sutton's rates rose to 24% and 2.19. That's truly really strong data, and it's not an insignificant sample size. Jeudy has missed a lot of time. For reference, none of Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, or D.J. Moore boasts a yard-per-route run rate above 2.19 across the 2022-23 seasons.
Palmer's career rates while sharing the field with Williams:
14% - Target per route run rate
1.00 - Yards per route run
Palmer's career rates without Big Mike on the field:
20% - Target per route run rate
1.66 - Yards per route run
Palmer on 275 routes without Williams in 2023:
20% - Target per route run rate
1.98 - Yards per route run
Palmer improved across the board in his third season and could take another step forward in 2024. His skill set is more limited than the two young receivers that the Chargers have invested high draft picks into over the past two drafts, but Palmer is the only one who has proven to Justin Herbert that he can be trusted.
Ladd McConkey is the Chargers receiver who Fantasy managers are flocking to draft, which is no surprise given his crisp route-running ability and exciting athleticism. I have some concerns about McConkey's ability to take on a sizable target share as an NFL rookie. McConkey only drew a target on 24% of his routes during his Georgia career and his single-season high was just 26%. That's unusually low for an NFL prospect, even one playing in a competitive target space. McConkey's career-high single-game target total was just nine, and he only even topped six targets in 4 of 39 games. McConkey ran 140 career routes without Brock Bowers on the field, his target per route run rate within that sample was just 24.7%.
We have no proof at all that suggests that McConkey might be someone who draws targets at a high rate. If that proves to be the case, Palmer might end up being one of the best values in Fantasy drafts.