Sometimes, it takes a little creativity to come up with an angle for an otherwise rather mediocre primetime matchup. And we definitely have one of those for Week 11's edition of Monday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys, out of their bye, visit the Las Vegas Raiders. This game will be all about a horrific Dallas defense against an equally bad Las Vegas offense. In its first-ever game in Sin City, Dallas is -3.5 with a total of 50 for the usual 8:15 ET kick on ABC and ESPN.
I'll go into it more below, but that Matt Eberflus-coordinated Cowboys defense is so lousy that this game total is easily the highest for a Raiders game in 2025, although obviously the excellent Dallas offense plays a major role in that number. Las Vegas is just playing out the string at this point, and it's already time to start thinking about the team's 2026 starting quarterback because it's almost not surely going to be Geno Smith after his performance this year.
The Raiders are fifth favorites (+1100) to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL and earn the top pick in the 2026 draft, where they could pick a QB like Alabama's Ty Simpson (+200 favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick), Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+250) or Oregon's Dante Moore (+600). The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Las Vegas for the third-fewest wins at 4.5 and that's what the books have. The preseason over/under total in coach Pete Carroll's first season was 6.5 victories. That Over is not happening.
Dallas was set at O/U 7.5 wins entering the season and still might land Over, although the model has it finishing at 7.1 victories. That clearly would not be enough for a wild card spot, which is the only route to the postseason for the Cowboys with Philadelphia running away with the NFC East. Entering Week 11, the model gave Dallas a 7.9% shot (equates to +1166) at the playoffs, which would rise to 10.7% (+835) with a win. A loss would all hopes, especially with the Eagles winning again Sunday night. The books list the Cowboys at 6.5 wins, +1200 to make the postseason and -3000 for to not.
We'll take you through every aspect of the Cowboys vs. Raiders game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.
Who wins Cowboys vs. Raiders in the Week 11 Monday night game, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know to dominate your Monday Night Football bets, plus get expert picks, model sims, prop bets, DFS lineups, and more!
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