Advanced model updates Jaguars' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the 2020 NFL Draft.
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In the two seasons since the Jacksonville Jaguars took the New England Patriots to the wire in the AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars have gone through three starting quarterbacks and watched the once-dominant defense they hung their hats on erode under the constant pressure of having to carry the team. Jacksonville has won 11 games now in the last two seasons and began a complete dismantling of the franchise this offseason.
After trading away Jalen Ramsey last season, the Jaguars also traded Calais Campbell, Nick Foles and A.J. Bouye earlier this year and are still actively shopping running back Leonard Fournette after declining his fifth-year option. And while they did throw some money around on guys like Joe Schobert, Rodney Gunter and Tyler Eifert in free agency, those aren't exactly the sorts of moves that quickly rebuild a franchise.
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So as the Jaguars entered the 2020 NFL Draft, it was imperative that the franchise land difference makers who could help begin this roster rebuild in earnest. And with 12 overall picks, the Jaguars certainly gave it their best effort, landing Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson and LSU edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson in the first round to help remake their once-great defense.
On Day Two, the Jaguars got a couple more potential impact players in Colorado wide receiver Laviska Shenault and Ohio State defensive lineman DaVon Hamilton. And the eight selections they made on Day Three were divided evenly between offense and defense to help improve overall depth on both sides of the ball.
Now as they enter the 2020 season having committed to Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback in the short-term, the Jaguars have to feel like they've taken some positive steps towards sustainable success long-term. That being said, competing in a division where each of the other three teams have made the playoffs in the last two seasons with an incredibly young roster probably doesn't bode well for the upcoming season.
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Jaguars win an average of 5.2 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, up from 4.6 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Jacksonville wins the division 3.0 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 5.8 percent of the time. The Jaguars are also currently 200-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for worst odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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