Advanced model updates 49ers' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the 2020 NFL Draft.
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After winning just 12 games in the previous three seasons combined, the San Francisco 49ers very quickly reaped the rewards of a swift roster rebuild under head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch in 2019, winning 13 games and carrying a 20-10 lead into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 54 before ultimately losing to the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the 49ers haven't rested on their laurels in the 2020 NFL offseason and they're as intent as ever on putting one of the league's most successful franchises back on top.
The 49ers knew they'd likely only be able to keep one of DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, so they extended Armstead and traded Buckner to the Colts for the No. 13 overall pick this offseason. And while the 49ers didn't have a ton of cash to spend in NFL free agency, they were able to make a few notable depth signings by inking veterans Tom Compton, Travis Benjamin and Jason Verrett.
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At the 2020 NFL Draft, the 49ers looked to address their biggest holes in impactful ways, trading back from No. 13 to No. 14 to draft South Carolina defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw as a replacement for Buckner and moving up from No. 31 to No. 25 to draft Arizona State wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Both should factor heavily into the two-deep as rookies and help assuage the losses of Buckner and Emmanuel Sanders.
Meanwhile, the 49ers stayed active on the trade market throughout the rest of the NFL Draft, acquiring Trent Williams to replace Joe Staley on Day Two and moving around to select Colton McKivitz, Charlie Woerner and Jauan Jennings on Day Three. All five 49ers selections made were acquired via trade and San Francisco used expendable veterans Matt Breida and Marquise Goodwin to improve their draft capital.
At the end of it all, the 49ers still clearly have one of the best rosters in the NFL and that's a genuine testament to the vision the franchise has had since controversially hiring Lynch out of the broadcast booth in 2017. Now it will be interesting to see if the 49ers can continue to hold off a talented division that could have all four teams challenge or winning records in 2020.
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the 49ers win an average of 10.9 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from11.4 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. San Francisco still wins the division 68.8 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 91.6 percent of the time. The 49ers are also currently 7-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for second-best odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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