2026 Wurth 400 odds, picks: NASCAR projected leaderboard from proven model

With 10 races in the bag, the Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the 2026 Wurth 400. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET, and there have been nine different NASCAR Texas winners over the last nine races held at TMS. That could make Wurth 400 bets a bit difficult, but one of those nine winners is Sunday's favorite in Denny Hamlin. He's at +500 in the latest 2026 NASCAR at Texas odds, followed by Tyler Reddick (+600), who sits atop the Cup Series standings with five wins on the year.

Kyle Larson is at +650, with Ryan Blaney priced at +900. Last week's victor, Carson Hocevar, is at +1600 to win in back-to-back weeks, and he claimed the pole position in qualifying on Saturday. After getting his first Cup Series win a week ago, Hocevar has his second NASCAR pole this week. A year ago, Joey Logano prevailed at the track but he's a +2700 NASCAR longshot amid a rough start to this season. Brad Keselowski, who has top 10s in eight of his last nine TMS races, is priced at +3300.

Before making any 2026 Wurth 400 picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see what auto racing insider Mike McClure has to say.

McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action, taking factors such as matchups and statistical trends into account. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks could have seen HUGE returns.

For NASCAR at Texas, the model is fading Tyler Reddick (+600), saying he doesn't even crack the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Another surprise: Joey Logano (+2700) is projected to make a strong run towards the title. Logano is one of three active drivers with multiple Texas victories as he enters Sunday's race as the defending winner.

The model has also identified two other longshots of at least +2700 who make runs for the top of the leaderboard, including a massive one of at least +7500, potentially netting any backer a huge payday!

So who wins the 2026 Wurth 400, and which longshots could stun NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that nailed 11 winners last year, and find out!