2026 South Point 400 odds, picks: NASCAR at Las Vegas projected leaderboard from proven model
Mike McClure's NASCAR model has simulated the South Point 400 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway 10,000 times
loading...
loading...
The NASCAR Chase continues on Sunday from Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the South Point 400 2026. The green flag drops at 5:30 p.m. ET for the fifth playoff race, with Kyle Larson coming off a triumph last week -- his second win this playoff -- while Christopher Bell and Joey Logano also have a victory each. However, Denny Hamlin won the spring NASCAR Las Vegas event, in addition to this race a year ago, while Brad Keselowski is a three-time winner at this track entering the 2026 South Point 400.
Hamlin is the +350 favorite in the 2026 NASCAR Vegas odds, with Larson (+410) behind him. Bell (+650), Tyler Reddick (+750) and Chase Briscoe (+800) round out the top five. Ryan Preece, who has top 10s in back-to-back starts is a +6000 longshot to target in NASCAR bets.
Before making any 2026 South Point 400 picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see what auto racing insider Mike McClure has to say.
McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action, taking factors such as matchups and statistical trends into account.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 34 winners since 2021 and 16 since 2025, including each of the last three weeks with Kyle Larson at Illinois, Joey Logano at Bristol and then Larson again at Kansas! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks could have seen HUGE returns.
For NASCAR at Las Vegas, the model is fading Kyle Larson (+410), saying despite him having the second-shortest odds, he doesn't even crack the top 5. On the other hand, it is high on Joey Logano at +1900. His 9.8 career average finish at Vegas is second best among all active drivers, and no driver has more Vegas wins than Logano's four, including winning this race in 2022 and 2024.
The model has also identified two other longshot values of at least +1900, including a massive longshot priced around +6000 who make runs for the title!
So who wins the 2026 South Point 400, and which longshots should you back? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that's nailed 34 winners since 2021 including wins in each of the last three weeks with Kyle Larson at Illinois, Joey Logano at Bristol and Larson again at Kansas!
GET VEGAS EXPERT PICKS FOR NFL, MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING TOOLS, AND MORE!
