2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bets for Triple Crown race

One of the country's greatest sporting events returns on Saturday when the starting gate opens for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Arkansas Derby winner Renegade will look to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post position since Ferdinand in 1986. Runaway Blue Grass Stakes hero Further Ado and Florida Derby champ Commandment are the co-second choices, at 6-1. The Bill Mott-trained Chief Wallabee (8-1) and Tampa Bay Derby victor The Puma (10-1) round out the top five choices in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET, with temperatures forecasted to be in the high 50s around post time. 

With the 20-horse Kentucky Derby providing the most difficult handicapping puzzle every year, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions considering his track history in the race.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.

And earlier this year, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez is low on Renegade, even though he is the 4-1 favorite. "As a late-running closer, he will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip and is in danger of losing massive ground if he tries to pass horses on the outside on the far turn," he says.

However, Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he is 8-1 on the morning line. "If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there's not much difference between him and, say, Commandment," he says. Menez is using Chief Wallabee prominently in his wagers.  

Moreover, Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is including these horses in his 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Kentucky Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who hammered the exacta and trifecta in last year's Kentucky Derby for a $1,045 payout.