2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bets for Triple Crown race

The starting gate opens for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday at 6:37 p.m. ET. Arkansas Derby winner Renegade, who is the favorite at 4-1, will try to become the first horse to win from the No. 1 post position since Ferdinand in 1986. Runaway Blue Grass Stakes hero Further Ado and Florida Derby champ Commandment are tied for second in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds at 6-1, with Chief Wallabee also among the list of favorites at 8-1. 

With the 19-horse Kentucky Derby providing the most difficult handicapping puzzle every year, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions considering his track history in the race.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In last year's Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout! Anyone who has followed him could be WAY UP!

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez is fading  Renegade, even though he is the 4-1 favorite. Instead, Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he is a longshot at 8-1! "If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there's not much difference between him and, say, Commandment," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is using Chief Wallabee prominently in his wagers.  

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw!" He also is high on a double-digit longshot who he deems the best win value in the field! Menez is including these horses in his 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a MUST-BACK? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Kentucky Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who hammered the exacta and trifecta in last year's Kentucky Derby!