2026 Freeway Insurance 500 odds, picks: NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard from proven model
Mike McClure's NASCAR model has simulated the Freeway Insurance 500 from Phoenix Raceway 10,000 times
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The NASCAR Chase continues on Sunday from Phoenix Raceway with the Freeway Insurance 500 2026. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET for the seventh of 10 playoff races. Chase Briscoe made it back-to-back wins last week at Charlotte, and Kyle Larson also has two playoff victories, while Christopher Bell and Joey Logano each have one triumph. However, Ryan Blaney was victorious at the March NASCAR Phoenix event, while Logano's four wins at this track are twice as many as any other active driver entering the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500.
Blaney is the +390 favorite in the 2026 NASCAR Phoenix odds, with Bell (+400) narrowly behind him. Denny Hamlin (+650) has three straight top 6s at this track, while Logano (+700) and Briscoe (+800) round out the top five. Shane van Gisbergen, who is not among the 16 drivers in the playoffs but has back-to-back top 10s, is a +15000 NASCAR longshot.
Before making any 2026 Freeway Insurance 500 picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see what auto racing insider Mike McClure has to say.
McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action, taking factors such as matchups and statistical trends into account.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 34 winners since 2021 and 16 since 2025, including three winners last month with Kyle Larson at Illinois, Joey Logano at Bristol and then Larson again at Kansas! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks could have seen HUGE returns.
For NASCAR at Phoenix, the model is fading Ryan Blaney (+390), saying despite being the favorite, he barely cracks the top 5. On the other hand, it is high on William Byron at +1500. He's notched top 10s in four of his last five starts and has proven success at Phoenix. Byron won at this track in 2023 as part of six top 10s over his last eight Phoenix starts.
The model has also identified two other longshot values of at least +1500 who make runs for the title!
So who wins the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500, and which longshots should you back? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that's nailed 34 winners since 2021 including three last month with Kyle Larson at Illinois, Joey Logano at Bristol and Larson again at Kansas!
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