2023 NFL home-field advantage ratings: Unique point totals for all 32 teams for projecting Week 1 lines
Home-field advantage is commonly thought to be three points, but all teams are not created equal.
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It's a tale as old as time. Two NFL teams considered even come up against either on the schedule, and the sportsbooks make the home team three-point favorites. Games end in a three-point margin more often than any other margin of victory, and it's easy to project two evenly-matched teams being tied near the final whistle before a field goal decides a winner.
But it's been a good amount of time since home-field advantage in the NFL was actually three points. In the years preceding the pandemic, it was common for the average home-field advantage to be worth around 2.5 points, but in 2019 home-field advantage all but completely vanished, with home teams only winning about 52% of the time and scoring for the average team about the same on the road as at home. That trend hasn't stuck, but it's clear that anyone still assigning three points for home-field advantage is behind the times.
And the sportsbooks themselves appear to be assigning less than three points for home-field advantage. Just look at the lines for Week 1, which features three games where the home team is a three-point favorite, per SportsLine consensus: Titans at Saints, Panthers at Falcons, and Dolphins at Chargers. The Saints' win total is two higher in the market than that of the Titans, while the Falcons' win total is one higher than that of the Panthers. The Chargers and Dolphins have the same win total, but the Chargers are well juiced to the Over while the Dolphins aren't, and Miami is the team with more injury concerns early in the season right now.
I've had consistent success picking NFL games against the spread, going 535-450-30 (+3532) on all NFL ATS picks in the regular season and playoffs on SportsLine since 2017. I've also recorded a 376-290-24 (56.5 percent) record since 2015 on ATS picks in the SuperContest, which requires you to enter your five best bets every week of the NFL season. One reason for my long-term success is the research I do heading into each NFL season that includes generating unique home-field advantage numbers for every team to help me be ahead of the books when it comes to projecting spreads for each game. This year, I'm sharing those home-field advantage ratings exclusively with SportsLine members below.
Which teams have the best home-field advantage in the league? And which teams should be worth fading when playing at home? ... Join SportsLine right now to see all of R.J. White's 2023 NFL home-field advantage ratings, all from the expert who has crushed his NFL picks over the last seven years!
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