2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks: NASCAR at Richmond projected leaderboard, predictions from top model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway 10,000 times
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The NASCAR Playoffs continue on Saturday with the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway. The green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET and Martin Truex Jr. is the 7-2 favorite in the latest 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Our proven projection model has simulated the race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also nailed Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and at Watkins Glen it predicted the top five drivers before nailing seven of the top 10 at Darlington last week. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he's a 40-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Richmond odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., the Vegas favorite at 7-2, stumbles big-time and fails to get the win! There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting one other driver with NASCAR at Richmond odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag and also sees value in a MASSIVE triple-digit long shot! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400? And which EPIC long shot is a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that nailed several big winners this season and predicted the top five at Watkin Glen!


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