In the modern-day NFL, when a quarterback is selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, he's going to be the immediate Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite for that coming regular season. And that's the case for LSU quarterback Joe Burrow at William Hill sportsbook.
CBS SportsLine fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs projects these 2020 numbers for Burrow: 3,722 yards passing, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions along with 52 carries for 279 yards and three scores. Those are OROY-quality numbers.
It might surprise NFL bettors how relatively infrequently a quarterback wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yes, Arizona's Kyler Murray, who like Burrow was a former Heisman Trophy winner picked No. 1 overall, won it in 2019. That said, Murray trailed Raiders running back Josh Jacobs on the odds for much of the season. Jacobs, though, got banged up late in the year and missed three few games and that left an opening for Murray.
Murray was "only" the fifth quarterback since 2009 to win OROY, joining the Rams' Sam Bradford (No. 1 overall pick in 2010), Panthers' Cam Newton (No. 1 pick in 2011), Redskins' Robert Griffin III (No. 2 pick in 2012), Cowboys' Dak Prescott (No. 135 pick in 2016) and Murray.
Four running backs and two receivers have also won the award in that stretch, including back-to-back tailbacks in 2018 in the Giants' Saquon Barkley and the year before in the Saints' Alvin Kamara.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 overall pick) and Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire are next among the favorites but well behind Burrow. Tua might not play much as a rookie in Miami because he's coming off such a serious injury/surgery. Expect the Fins to treat him with kid gloves.
Edwards-Helaire was a moderate surprise as the first and only running back chosen in Round 1. The former LSU star is a very well-rounded back in that he's good as a receiver and Chiefs GM Brett Veach said his rookie "reminds me of Brian Westbrook."
Westbrook was a fabulous player with the Eagles when current Kansas City coach Andy Reid was in Philadelphia. The wideout with the shortest odds is Denver's Jerry Jeudy, who slipped to No. 15 overall.
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It's definitely wise to wager on a first-round pick winning OROY as Kamara (No. 67 overall in 2017), Prescott and former Packers running back Eddie Lacy (2013 second-round pick) are the only non-first-round winners since 2004. The lowest-drafted player to win Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year honors was Broncos running back Mike Anderson in 2000. He was picked No. 189 overall out of Utah that year.
The Bengals have had two Offensive Rookies of the Year, both receivers: Carl Pickens in 1992 and Eddie Brown in 1985.
