2023 Players Championship weather forecast, golf odds, trends: Bettors leaning chalk with favorites Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm
The 2023 Players Championship tees off Thursday from TPC Sawgrass.
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Rather amazingly, there never has been a repeat champion of the PGA Tour's flagship event, the Players Championship. That trend will continue at least one more year as 2022 champion Cameron Smith of Australia is now on the LIV Series. The 2023 event tees off Thursday from TPC Sawgrass outside Jacksonville, Fla., and it's the best field of the year (44 of the world's Top 50) even without two-time winner Tiger Woods. As of this writing, bettors at BetMGM are heavy on favorites Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm to win.
McIlroy, ranked No. 3 in the world, won the 2018 Players Championship at 16-under 272 by a shot over Jim Furyk. The Northern Irishman has a few other Top 10s at the tournament but hasn't contended since his victory (the 2020 tournament was canceled). Rory has played four PGA Tour events this season and has a victory in South Carolina and a co-runner-up last week in Orlando at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's the +900 favorite.
Scheffler, the world No. 2, is a +1000 second favorite with No. 1 Rahm. Scheffler has played the Players Championship twice with a missed cut in 2021 and a T55 last year – some guys just don't fare well on Pete Dye-designed courses. Phil Mickelson was well-known for disliking them but did win here once. Scheffler won last month at the Phoenix Open on Super Bowl weekend and comes off a T4 at the Arnold Palmer. All 14 players who have won on Tour this season will be at TPC Sawgrass.
Rahm hasn't missed the cut in this tournament but also has yet to finish better than T9. He has been the best player in the world since the calendar flipped to 2023 with three PGA Tour wins (last in LA at the Genesis Invitational). The Spaniard led last week's event in Orlando after a first-round 65 but didn't shoot better than 72 the rest of the way to finish T39, his first time outside the Top 10 in seven Tour events played this wraparound season.
As of this writing, Scheffler is taking the most tickets to win at BetMGM at 8.6%, followed by McIlroy at 7.9% and Rahm 7.8%. That's a bit unusual because usually the favorites don't take the heaviest action at PGA Tour events because they aren't great value. On the handle, McIlroy is first at 11.8% with Scheffler second at 9.9% and Rahm third at 8.5%.
The $25 million purse this week is the richest in PGA Tour history and the winner of the "fifth major" earns a record $4.5 million. If you are wondering, LIV Golf pays $4 million to each of the winners of its 14 events this season, but of course none of those players are eligible to compete this week. A total of 17 players who competed in the 2022 event last year are now with LIV.
There are 32 entrants — more than 20 percent of the field — who are in their first Players Championship. The number is usually around 20-24. Thirty players are ranked 200th in the world and below. That's the LIV factor. Smith lives in the area and says he'll be fishing this weekend.
Every book is offering special props on the famous island par-3 17th this week. At FanDuel, that there's a hole-in-one there is +210 with no at -270 but there are many others. Shane Lowry had an ace in 2022. The record for most balls hit in the water in one round there by the field is 50 and the all-time record for the entire tournament is 93 in 2007 (records kept since 2003).
Wind was a factor last year in Ponte Vedra Beach, and rain led to a Monday finish (doesn't generally rain in March in Florida much). Here's the forecast for this weekend from weather.com, followed by tee times for Round 1 (times Eastern):
No. 1 Tee
6:50 a.m. -- Robby Shelton, Austin Smotherman, Min Woo Lee
7:01 a.m. -- Kevin Streelman, Denny McCarthy, Matthew NeSmith
7:12 a.m. -- Byeong Hun An, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Doug Ghim
7:23 a.m. -- Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Keith Mitchell
7:34 a.m. -- Kevin Kisner, Nick Taylor, Corey Conners
7:45 a.m. -- Trey Mullinax, Cam Davis, Tyler Duncan
7:56 a.m. -- Adam Svensson, Joel Dahmen, Robert Streb
8:07 a.m. -- J.J. Spaun, Chad Ramey, Luke List
8:18 a.m. -- Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Brian Harman
8:29 a.m. -- Emiliano Grillo, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace
8:40 a.m. -- Nate Lashley, Troy Merritt, Kelly Kraft
8:51 a.m. -- Aaron Baddeley, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin
11:50 a.m. -- Kevin Tway, Russell Knox, Chesson Hadley
12:01 p.m. -- Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, Doc Redman
12:12 p.m. -- Beau Hoser, Adam Schenk, Stephan Jaegar
12:23 p.m. -- Lucas Herbert, Aaron Wise, Jason Day
12:34 p.m. -- Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry
12:45 p.m. -- Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele
12:56 p.m. -- Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth
1:07 p.m. -- Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala
1:18 p.m. -- Chris Kirk, Seamus Power, Keegan Bradley
1:29 p.m. -- Sam Ryder, Davis Riley, Taylor Moore
1:40 p.m. -- Alex Noren, Thomas Detry, Max McGreevy
1:51 p.m. -- Joseph Bramlett, Justin Suh, Andrew Novak
No. 10 Tee
6:50 a.m. -- Danny Willett, Brandon Wu, Davis Thompson
7:01 a.m. -- Adam Long, Hayden Buckley, Taylor Montgomery
7:12 a.m. -- Tommy Fleetwood, Taylor Pendrith, Callum Tarren
7:23 a.m. -- Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Tyrrell Hatton
7:34 a.m. -- Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Patrick Cantlay
7:45 a.m. -- Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler
7:56 a.m. -- Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy
8:07 a.m. -- Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Hideki Matsuyama
8:18 a.m. -- Nico Echavarria, Sungjae Im, Harris English
8:29 a.m. -- Jhonattan Vegas, Peter Malnati, Ryan Fox
8:40 a.m. -- Adam Hadwin, Patrick Rodgers, Greyson Sigg
8:51 a.m. -- Nick Hardy, Eric Cole, Harrison Endycott
11:50 a.m. -- David Lipsky, S.H. Kim, Tyson Alexander
12:01 p.m. -- Kramer Hickok, Lee Hodges, Will Gordon
12:12 p.m. -- Ben Griffin, Matthias Schwab, Justin Lower
12:23 p.m. -- Sepp Straka, Garrick Higgo, Stewart Cink
12:34 p.m. -- Chez Reavie, Tom Hoge, Francesco Molinari
12:45 p.m. -- J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar
12:56 p.m. -- K.H. Lee, Martin Laird, Gary Woodland
1:07 p.m. -- Ryan Brehm, Lanto Griffin, Scott Stallings
1:18 p.m. -- Ryan Palmer, Patton Kizzire, Alex Smalley
1:29 p.m. -- Dylan Frittelli, Jerry Kelly, Wyndham Clark
1:40 p.m. -- Scott Piercy, James Hahn, Nick Watney
1:51 p.m. -- Aaron Rai, Dylan Wu, Erik Barnes
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