Boise State isn't what it used to be, especially defensively. Maybe that potato NIL money isn't cutting it. BSU is near the bottom nationally in allowing 430.0 ypg. San Diego State is a mediocre offensive team and hung 31 on the Broncos last week. Memphis will allow some yards and points but ranks third nationally in third-down conversion defense (22.64%) and Top 20 against the pass (169.8 ypg). Dual-threat Boise QB Taylen Green isn't much dual as he's really a RB who completes 53.2% of his passes with four picks. Memphis has the far superior passer in Seth Henigan. Half unit as a few models are high on Memphis (25-1 in its past 26 at home vs. non-con foes), while I'm lukewarm.

Models make Memphis a 6 to 7-point favorite. The market agrees, as this line has already been steamed to -3.5 from the opening number of -1 at some books. Seth Henigan has improved each year but is coming off a bad game at Mizzou, so the market opened a little low on him. Boise’s defense is one of the worst in the nation against the pass. Memphis has trouble running the ball, but Boise is bad at defending that too. On the flip side, the Tigers pass defense is elite, with a 27.1% success rate (No. 1 nationally) and a 22.2% havoc rate. The defense as a whole ranks No. 5 nationally with -15.3 EPA/game.