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Thu 10/21 | 11:30 PM UTC | Dallas
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tulane Green Wave 0-5, 1-4 ATS
TULANE +14
TULANE +425
Over 70.5
SMU Mustangs 5-0, 3-2 ATS
SMU -14
SMU -600
Under 70.5

Expert Picks

Tulane 26 @ SMU 55 | 10/21 | 11:30 PM UTC

SMU -13.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Told myself I wouldn't touch this AAC game unless the spread dropped under 14. Well, here we are. Per usual under Coach Sonny Dykes, SMU is among the top offensive teams in the country -- this year with Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai at QB -- while Tulane is just god-awful on defense in allowing more than 40 points per. The Mustangs should get to 48 at home, and I don’t see the Green Wave scoring 35 to cover because they haven’t scored more than 29 in their past four. The SportsLine Projection Model has SMU winning by 20. ESPN's SP+ has SMU 14 points better, so I feel pretty good at -13.5.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1059 64-47-2 IN LAST 113 CFB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 TULANE ATS PICKS

Season Splits

0-5, 1-4 ATS
5-0, 3-2 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
20%
1-4
3-2
60%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
33%
1-2
2-0
100%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
33%
1-2
2-2
50%
When Line was 68 to 72
SPREAD
When Line was 68 to 72
0%
0-1
0-1
0%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
1-1
2-0
100%
vs Teams That Win >70% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <50% of Games
0%
0-2
1-2
33%
vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >32 PPG
0%
0-2
1-2
33%
After >8 Days Off
REST
After >8 Days Off
20%
1-4
3-2
60%
vs SMU
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TULANE
0%
0-0
0-0
0%