Could Florida State be poised for a letdown after upsetting No. 5 North Carolina last week? Sure. But I see that game as a turning point for this program. I think the 'Noles will ride the momentum from the victory moving forward. On Saturday they face a Louisville team that is the fifth worst in the country in turnover margin. My model says Florida State WINS this game and covers two-thirds of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

You know it's an odd state of affairs for the Seminoles when a home win over North Carolina is considered a massive accomplishment. They also gave a decent effort against Notre Dame the prior week, but a flat spot looms Saturday. The Cardinals have been a disappointment after overachieving last year. They are a couple plays away from being 3-2 instead of 1-4 and this is a prime spot for a turnaround against a Florida State team in a prime letdown position.