My model says Cincinnati wins this game and covers the spread almost 60 percent of the time. So you're getting strong value with the Bearcats at this number. Cincinnati's pass defense ranks No. 2 in the country in passing efficiency and should be able to complicate things for SMU quarterback Shane Buechele, who won't have his top receiver, Reggie Roberson Jr.

This one is about SMU's offensive strength versus Cincinnati's defensive strength. The Bearcats' defense is allowing just 12.3 points per game and just 4.3 yards per play, ranking No. 6 nationally. SMU's defense ranks 31st allowing 5.5 yards per play. SMU's offense ranks No. 7 in scoring at 42.6 points per game, but Cincinnati isn't too far behind at 35.7 points per game. I have had Cincinnati rated at least three points better the entire season.

SMU has stormed to a 5-0 straight-up record with a dynamic offense, but the defenses it faced are dreadful. Not so with Cincinnati’s, with its knack for interceptions. The host team will bemoan not having top receiver Reggie Roberson and No. 2 rusher T.J. McDaniel, both done for the season. Their absence has been disguised by the fact that three SMU wins have come by one-score margins.

SMU needed overtime to knock off Tulane last week. I came away more worried about the SMU defense than anything. The Mustangs offense showed that it should be fine without WR Reggie Roberson Jr. and RB TJ McDaniel, but the defense struggled to get Tulane off the field. SMU faces one of the best defenses in college football in Cincinnati, which will be coming into this matchup with an extra week of preparation.