Nearly everything went wrong for Oklahoma in the first half of the first meeting against Baylor, though the second half was much more indicative of what this matchup should look like. The Sooners have a long history of success at AT&T Stadium and it's unlikely they'll have a lack of focus in this one. The Bears have made a remarkable turnaround and reaching the CFP would be an unbelievable story. But they'll have to settle for an unlikely run to the Big 12 title game.

Baylor comes in seeking revenge after blowing a 28-3 lead and losing to Oklahoma 34-31. I like how Baylor responded in its final two games, beating Texas 24-10 and Kansas 61-6. The Baylor defense ranks 14th in yards per play allowed over the last six weeks, while Oklahoma’s defense ranks No. 45 allowing 5.4 yards per play. Baylor has covered its last four games, while Oklahoma is just 1-4 against the spread in it last five games. The Bears are still peaking, while the line has caught up to the Sooners.

Baylor jumped out to a huge lead in the first half of the first meeting, but it was thanks in large part to a couple of Oklahoma turnovers that set up the Bears in the red zone. Once Oklahoma stopped turning the ball over, it controlled this game. It saw what Baylor was doing defensively, adjusted at halftime, and dominated the second half. The rematch will look a lot more like the second half of the first meeting than the first. Not that Baylor will get blown out, but it will have difficulty keeping pace.

It seems like Oklahoma's offense is getting all of the pub here, but the Bears defense is getting completely ignored. They baffled the Sooners in the first meeting between the two, which is why the Bears built that 28-3 lead. They'll build off that and force a couple of turnovers which will keep this total around the mid-50s.

Baylor's defense has been ignored leading into this matchup, and Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts has made several mistakes down the stretch that give me pause leading into this matchup. I don't care how loaded the Sooners offense is, the Bears take chances and they consistently pay off -- even in the first matchup. They'll do enough to at least have a chance. Take the points.