Who knows what you're going to get with Mississippi State? I do know what I'm going to get with Miami-Ohio QB Gus Ragland, and that's a consistent never-say-die attitude. Miami had two different QBs lead the RedHawks to an 0-6 record, then they gave Ragland a shot and he's led the team to six straight wins and a bowl berth. He's instilled a confidence in the team simply by not turning the ball over -- 15 TDs and no interceptions in his six games. Of course, there's a big disparity in perception between the conferences they play in. The MAC has lost lost all three bowls so far (1-2 ATS) and this will be the SEC's debut. Give me the points with Miami-Ohio.

The RedHawks are the more motivated side, and they come in on a six-game win streak. Since taking over at midseason, Miami QB Gus Ragland has thrown 15 TDs and zero INTs. Clearly Mississippi State has more talent, but I expect Miami to make it interesting -- and cover.

The Redhawks had to win six straight games to become bowl eligible and were able to do so behind an offense that started to hit its stride midway through the season. The Bulldogs do a great job of pushing the pace and tempo, but have struggled with turning the ball over. This Bulldogs’ defense isn’t the same as it was last year and I look for a high-scoring affair. The value is with the underdog.