Penn State's dominance over the Hoosiers the last two seasons is well documented. The Nittany Lions have won four straight over Indiana by an average of 11.5 points. I like the way the Hoosiers are playing though since the return of guard Xavier Johnson. Indiana closed the year winning four straight. The Hoosiers also have a big edge in the paint. Indiana gets 61% of its scoring from two-point range and ranks first in the Big 10 in two-point FG%. Penn St ranks last in two-point FG% defense. I make the Hoosiers favorites here. I think they dominate on the boards and win as small dogs.

Indiana has won four straight since senior guard Xavier Johnson returned to action. That has coincided with a boost in Kel'el Ware's play: the 7-foot sophomore has scored 26-plus points in three of those victories and grabbed 11-plus rebounds in all four. It will be a bonus if senior Trey Galloway returns from injury, but even if he doesn't, I like the Hoosiers to avenge their two regular-season losses to Penn State. Johnson missed those games, and he will help slow down Ace Baldwin's penetration.