The Gaels match up well with the Bruins and are 20-10-2 ATS this season. UCLA had major issues shooting against Akron in the first round, and the Zips aren't nearly as good defensively as Saint Mary's. The Gaels have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 59.4 points per game. The SportsLine Projection Model has Saint Mary's winning outright more than half the time and covering the spread in 62 percent of simulations.

UCLA’s opening-round victory over Akron showed that the Bruins might not be able to match last year’s tournament run. Saint Mary’s might have faced an inferior opponent in an 82-53 annihilation of Indiana, but the Gaels are the real deal. They should keep this as a one-possession game. Take St. Mary’s.

UCLA looked a little shaky in its win against Akron, needing Tyger Campbell to step up as the veteran leader that any top seed loves to have in the NCAA Tournament. But while that's a helpful part of a tournament team's DNA, I'm more concerned with Johnny Juzang (3-for-11) and Jaime Jaquez (3-for-10) struggled shooting the ball against an Akron defense that ranks outside the top-150 in defensive efficiency. Saint Mary's showed no signs of rust blowing out Indiana and its defense is worlds better than Akron, ranking top-10 nationally.

Saint Mary’s showed its true colors by holding Indiana to 18-of-53 shooting in Thursday’s 82-53 win. That gives the Gaels one of the most impressive eight-game stretches in the NCAA Tournament, which includes playing Gonzaga three times, beating them once and going 1-0-2 ATS in those meetings. Saint Mary’s has a few more games to play in the Tournament. I think Saint Mary’s wins outright, but I took the points.

Despite Thursday's results, there's still value on the underdog. I love UCLA but the Gaels match up well. Saint Mary's just destroyed Indiana and beat Gonzaga not too long ago. With coach Randy Bennett dictating pace, the Gaels have the size and experience to take down UCLA, or at least take this game to the wire. Look for Saint Mary's to improve to 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. winning teams.