The Falcons lost by 10 and 5 in their meetings with UNLV this season, and I think they can stay within this big number today. The Rebels allow opponents to shoot 37.3 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks 320th nationally. Air Force made 24 of 52 from deep in the losses to UNLV, and Wyoming just made 10 of 20 against the Rebels in the regular-season finale. Take the points.

Mountain West Tournament first-round game from Las Vegas, and my model shows more than 72 percent of simulations between the Falcons and Rebels going Over the small total of 129. The Over is 4-0 in UNLV's past four overall.